Türkiye’de ?nsani Geli?im Endeksi ile Sefalet Endeksi Aras?ndaki ?li?ki

Özet

Enflasyon, i?sizlik ve büyüme, en önemli üç makroekonomik göstergedir. Enflasyon ve i?sizlik, toplum üyelerinin ya?amlar?na k?sa sürede yans?d??? için ekonomistler bu göstergelere odaklanm??t?r. Bu do?rultuda Arthur Okun, 1970’lerde ABD ekonomisinde i?sizlik ve enflasyonun ayn? anda görüldü?ü bir ortamda (stagflasyon), i?sizlik ve enflasyonun toplam?ndan olu?an “sefalet (ho?nutsuzluk) endeksi”ni geli?tirmi?tir. ?nsani geli?me endeksi, insanlar?n ya?amlar?n? dikkate alarak refahlar?n? art?rmay? amaçlamaktad?r. Bu ba?lamda, gelir, e?itim ve sa?l?k göstergeleri kullan?larak olu?turulan bu endeks, söz konusu göstergelerin iyile?tirilmesinin insani geli?meyi ve dolay?s?yla ülkenin kalk?nmas?n? h?zland?raca??n? vurgulamaktad?r. Bu çal??ma, 1985-2022 y?llar? aras?nda Türkiye’de sefalet endeksinin insani geli?me endeksi üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Çal??mada, de?i?kenler aras?ndaki uzun vadeli ili?kileri incelemek için ARDL s?n?r testi koentegrasyon yakla??m? uygulanm?? ve k?sa vadeli nedensellik yönünü belirlemek için Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi kullan?lm??t?r. Analiz sonuçlar?na göre, de?i?kenler aras?nda uzun vadeli bir e?bütünle?me ili?kisi tespit edilmi?tir. Buna göre, sefalet endeksindeki %1’lik bir art???n, insani geli?me endeksini %0,10 oran?nda dü?ürdü?ü sonucuna var?lm??t?r. K?sa vadeli nedensellik sonuçlar?na göre ise, sefalet endeksinden insani geli?me endeksine do?ru çift yönlü bir nedensellik oldu?u sonucuna var?lm??t?r.

The Relationship Between Human Development Index and Misery Index in Türkiye

Abstract

Inflation, unemployment and growth are the three most important macroeconomic indicators. Since inflation and unemployment are reflected in the lives of society members in a short time, economists have focused on them. In this direction, Arthur Okun developed the misery (discontent) index, which is the sum of unemployment and inflation in the US economy in the 1970s, in an environment where unemployment and inflation were seen at the same time (stagflation). The human development index aims to increase the welfare of people by taking their lives into account. In this context, this index, which is created using income, education and health indicators, emphasizes that improving these indicators will accelerate human development and, as a result, the development of the country. This study investigates the effect of the misery index on the human development index in Turkey between 1985-2022. In the study, the ARDL bounds test cointegration approach was applied to investigate the long-term relationships between the variables and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test was applied to determine the short-term causality direction. According to the analysis results, a long-term cointegration relationship was found between the variables. Accordingly, it was concluded that a 1% increase in the misery index decreased the human development index by 0.10%. According to the short-term causality results; it was concluded that there was a bidirectional causality from the misery index to the human development index and from the human development index to the misery index.

Ph.D. candidate Esra Büyüksava? (Atatürk University, Erzurum, Türkiye)
0009-0004-3541-2424  esrabuyuksavas@gmail.com

Prof. Dr. Kerem Karabulut (Atatürk University, Erzurum, Türkiye)
0000-0002-3159-3289  kerem@atauni.edu.tr

Submitted on: 2026-04-01 Accepted on: 2026-07-23

Year:2026 - Volume:5 Issue:2 Pages: 11-20

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/J05.2.0161

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APA style citation: Büyüksava?, E. , & Karabulut, K. (2026). Türkiye’de ?nsani Geli?im Endeksi ile Sefalet Endeksi Aras?ndaki ?li?ki. Avrasya Ekonomileri Dergisi, 5(2), 11-20.

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