Assessing the Trade Impact of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on Australian Exports: A Synthetic Control Approach

Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of two trade agreements, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), on Australia’s export performance using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). The results show that the CPTPP has enhanced Australia’s exports performance, resulting in an average increase of 18% in exports since its implementation in December 2018. This positive increase continued during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the agreement’s role in stabilizing trade flows and mitigating global economic disruptions. In contrast, RCEP, which entered into force in January 2022, has shown a more modest and short-lived effect, with an average export increase of 4% that declined over time. This difference is attributed to CPTPP’s more powerful trade liberalization provisions and the overlap of RCEP membership with pre-existing bilateral agreements. This paper contributes to the literature by using the SCM to assess the impacts of these mega-regional trade agreements on Australian exports. Future studies should investigate sector-specific effects and extend the analysis to other member countries to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the broader implications of these agreements.

Trans-Pasifik Ortakl??? Kapsaml? ve ?lerici Anla?mas? ile Bölgesel Kapsaml? Ekonomik Ortakl???n Avustralya ?hracat?na Olan Ticari Etkilerinin De?erlendirilmesi: Sentetik Kontrol Yakla??m?

Özet

Bu çal??ma, Sentetik Kontrol Yöntemi (SCM) kullan?larak, Trans-Pasifik Kapsaml? ve ?lerici Ortakl?k Anla?mas? (CPTPP) ile Bölgesel Kapsaml? Ekonomik Ortakl?k (RCEP) adl? iki ticaret anla?mas?n?n Avustralya’n?n ihracat performans? üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Sonuçlar, CPTPP’nin Avustralya’n?n ihracat performans?n? art?rd???n? ve Aral?k 2018’deki yürürlü?e girmesinden bu yana ihracatta ortalama %18’lik bir art??a yol açt???n? göstermektedir. Bu olumlu art??, COVID-19 pandemisi s?ras?nda da devam etmi? ve anla?man?n ticaret ak??lar?n? istikrara kavu?turma ve küresel ekonomik aksakl?klar? hafifletmedeki rolünü vurgulam??t?r. Buna kar??l?k, Ocak 2022’de yürürlü?e giren RCEP, zamanla azalan ortalama %4’lük bir ihracat art???yla daha mütevaz? ve k?sa süreli bir etki göstermi?tir. Bu fark, CPTPP’nin daha güçlü ticaret serbestle?tirme hükümlerine ve RCEP üyeli?inin önceden var olan ikili anla?malarla çak??mas?na atfedilebilir. Bu makale, SCM’yi kullanarak bu mega-bölgesel ticaret anla?malar?n?n Avustralya ihracat? üzerindeki etkilerini de?erlendirmek suretiyle literatüre katk? sa?lamaktad?r. Gelecekteki çal??malar, bu anla?malar?n daha geni? kapsaml? etkilerini daha kapsaml? bir ?ekilde anlamak için sektöre özgü etkileri ara?t?rmal? ve analizi di?er üye ülkelere de geni?letmelidir.

Prof. Dr. Harun Bal (Çukurova University, Adana, Türkiye)
0000-0003-0878-8253  balharun@gmail.com

Prof. Dr. Selahattin Sar? (Eurasian Economists Association, Istanbul, Türkiye)
0000-0003-3218-2753  1950ssari@gmail.com

Ph.D. candidate Esma Erdo?an (Çukurova University, Adana, Türkiye)
0000-0002-7324-8512  esma01erdogan@gmail.com

Mr. Yasser Al Hasbi (Çukurova University, Adana, Türkiye)
0009-0000-3581-1960  alhasbiyasser@gmail.com

Submitted on: 2025-08-01 Accepted on: 2025-11-10

Year:2026 - Volume:5 Issue:2 Pages: 1-10

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/J05.2.0150

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APA style citation: Bal, H. , Sar?, S. , Erdo?an, E. , & Al Hasbi, Y. (2026). Assessing the Trade Impact of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on Australian Exports: A Synthetic Control Approach. Journal of Eurasian Economies, 5(2), 1-10.

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